Strategy & Bets
Setting product direction, making big calls, communicating strategy
1
Betting Under Fog
Name the bet. Set the threshold. Go all in. Reassess on signal, not schedule.
When you are early and do not have much data, your job is not to wait for certainty. Instead, name what you are betting on, decide what evidence would prove you wrong before you start, and move fast enough to collect real behavioral data. Think of it like drilling for oil — you pick the spot based on your best read, drill, and reassess.
2
Vision as Anchor
Paint the destination. Repeat it until everyone can fly the plane without you.
A product vision is a clear picture of what the world looks like if your team does its job right. Without it, your team is like passengers on a plane with a pilot who admits they do not know where they are going. The vision gives everyone a reason to push through the hard days and a filter for deciding what work actually matters.
3
Trade-offs Over Verdicts
Options plus a recommendation. The framework says no — you just brought the numbers.
When someone asks you to build something, don't just say yes or no. Instead, show them what building their thing would push out, and let the business goals decide. Tools like RICE or a value-vs-effort matrix give you a shared language for that conversation so it doesn't feel like your opinion against theirs.
4
The Concentrated Bet Doctrine
Concentration builds. Diversification preserves. You have nothing to preserve yet.
When resources are scarce, trying to do many things at once usually means doing none of them well. A startup's job is to pick the one or two moves that could actually change the game and put almost everything behind those, even if it means ignoring other opportunities that look attractive. Clarity about which bets you are making also tells you faster when things are going wrong.
5
Execution Eats Strategy
Ship to learn. Strategy is a hypothesis; execution is the proof.
Most new PMs want to spend time on big-picture strategy because it feels important and exciting. But customers never see your strategy — they only feel whether your product works for them today. Your job is to get something real into users' hands, measure what happens, and use that to sharpen your direction, not to perfect the plan before anyone sees it.